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• Draw simple conclusions and explain reasoning
• Use vocabulary and ideas of probability, drawing on experience
• Understand and use the probability scale from 0 to 1; find and justify probabilities based on equally likely outcomes in simple contexts; identify all the possible mutually exclusive outcomes of a single event
• Estimate probabilities by collecting data from a simple experiment and recording it in a frequency table; compare experimental and theoretical probabilities in simple contexts
• Move between the general and the particular to test the logic of an argument• Interpret the results of an experiment using the language of probability; appreciate that random processes are unpredictable• Know that if the probability of an event occurring is p, then the probability of it not occurring is 1-p; use diagrams and tables to record in a systematic way all possible mutually exclusive outcomes for single events and for two successive events
• Compare estimated experimental probabilities with theoretical probabilities, recognising that:
(i) if an experiment is repeated the outcome may, and usually will, be different
(ii) increasing the number of times an experiment is repeated generally leads to better estimates of probability
• Pose questions and make convincing arguments to justify generalisations or solutions
• Interpret results involving uncertainty and prediction
• Identify all the mutually exclusive outcomes of an experiment; know that the sum of probabilities of all mutually exclusive outcomes is 1 and use this when solving problems
• Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities in a range of contexts; appreciate the difference between mathematical explanation and experimental evidence